KINGSTON, Jamaica (CMC) — The Bank of Jamaica (B o J) says the inflation rate in the country is back on target, and that it had fallen below the four per cent to six per cent target between March and August this year.

“However, the 12-month inflation at October 2018, as reported by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin), was 4.7 per cent, higher than the 2.8 per cent recorded at the end of the June quarter,” said BoJ Governor Brian Wynter.

He told reporters that the uptick in inflation since June 2018 largely reflects higher, more normal prices for agricultural food crops and increased electricity costs.

But he said that over the next four quarters, inflation is projected to fall to four per cent at December 2018, accelerate to about 4.7 per cent at March 2019, and then rise further towards the upper limit of the target by June 2019.

“Inflation is then projected to fall close to the lower limit of the target in the September and December 2019 quarters, and then gradually trend towards five per cent thereafter,” Wynter said, adding that the BOJ’s medium-term forecast, which is for inflation to converge at five per cent, is predicated on continued improvements in domestic demand as gross domestic product (GDP) growth strengthens and the labour market improves further.

Wynter said this outlook is supported by an expectation of further strengthening of the United States (US) economy and continued monetary accommodation by the BOJ, while fiscal consolidation is expected to continue to have a restraining effect on domestic demand.

He said the BoJ, the island’s central bank, has assessed risk to the inflation forecast to be generally balanced.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/central-bank-says-inflation-rate-on-target_150342