BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) says despite projections of deceleration in global economic activity, the 2019 economic outlook for its borrowing member countries (BMC) is positive.

“CDB is projecting that real GDP (gross domestic product) growth will be 2.1 per cent, as construction, tourism, and the extractive industries, such as gold and oil, are expected to expand,” the CDB said in the Regional Economic Summary 2018.

“The expectation is that all but one of the BMCs will grow, once again led by Grenada. The rate of growth will be higher in Guyana, as the country prepares for commercial oil production starting in 2020. The one exception is Barbados, where the level of activity will remain the same,” the region’s premier financial institution.

In the summary, the CDB said that economic performance in the Caribbean is set against a background of slowing global economic growth and that the current international economic environment is characterised by escalating trade tensions, volatile commodity markets, and policy uncertainty with respect to both BREXIT and United States trade.

“In spite of all these developments, in 2018 most of CDB’s BMCs recorded positive economic growth. Growth averaged 1.9 per cent, an improvement on 0.5 per cent in 2017. The fastest growing economies were Grenada (5.2 per cent), Antigua and Barbuda (3.5 per cent) and Guyana (3.4 per cent). For Antigua and Barbuda and some of the other BMCs that were affected by the 2017 hurricane season, reconstruction efforts contributed to their upturn,” the CDB said.

In contrast, real gross domestic product contracted in Barbados despite modest gains in tourism, one of its key sectors.

“This contraction was attributed to the impact of fiscal consolidation and the fall in construction activity. Anguilla’s economy also contracted, due to an almost 40 per cent fall-off in visitor arrivals, following hurricane damage to the hotel stock in 2017.

“For the same reason, the British Virgin Islands experienced a 50 per cent decline in visitor arrivals. However, real GDP grew by over two per cent as a result of buoyant business and financial services activity”

The CDB said that most other Caribbean countries enjoyed increased visitor arrivals.

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