The Jamaican economy has had an average of less than one per cent annual growth for the last 30 years. At this rate, it will take well over 70 years to double our current gross domestic product (GDP) level. The Holness administration in 2016 correctly posited faster GDP growth as an urgent national priority.
The Government quickly established the private sector-dominated Economic Growth Council, chaired by the head of the NCB Group, Mr Michael Lee-Chin. Members of the council often expressed strong conviction that the targets would be met as the identified reforms were carried out. These reforms included crime and governance (corruption) improvements, and a faster approval process.
Many observers and analysts at the time, while supportive of the need for faster growth, expressed scepticism about the time frame. The Government gave the assurance that the continued massive investment in infrastructure development in highways and housing, along with private-sector investments flowing from the improvements in the macroeconomic environment, would contribute greatly to getting the five per cent annual GDP growth.
The Economic Growth Council has become quite low-keyed recently. It would be useful to hear from the council if the original target still holds, and if its proposed reforms are being implemented.
In 2018, with the massive levels of infrastructural investment and the most benign macroeconomic environment in decades, the economy grew by 1.8 per cent. While this was an improvement, it was below the expectation of Growth Council projection. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), in its latest quarterly briefing on the economy, indicated that the rate of growth has slowed to 1.4 per cent for the first half of 2019. For the April to June 2019 quarter, the rate of growth of GDP was one per cent. The PIOJ, worryingly, pointed to the possibility of a further weakening of growth for the rest of the year.
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