Jamaica’s “bond king”, Gregory Fisher, in his opening speech at the 12th Jamaican Stock Exchange Conference, quoted approvingly Sandals CEO Adam Stewart.
“In 45 years, we have not seen the confluence of events that’s taking place right now – inflation at four per cent, unemployment at 11.3 per cent, and long-term interest rates at eight per cent…Jamaica is ideally poised as a leader in the Caribbean and an international icon of a turnaround story.”
Fisher adds that Jamaica is now in fact the leader of the Caribbean economic community, giving kudos to Prime Minister Andrew Holness for steering the ship of state, while observing that Forbes Magazine has also made Jamaica its highest- ranked Caribbean Community country.
After an incredible +14.3 per cent return in 2016, Fisher observes Jamaican Eurobonds once again outperformed in 2017, when, according to JP Morgan Index data, the Jamaican sub-index tightened in spread by 70 basis points giving investors a total return of +14 per cent.
In other words, the Jamaican Bond curve outperformed the Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) by a resounding +471 basis points (one basis point is one hundredth of one per cent) in total – a magnificent accomplishment!
The three ingredients to Jamaica’s stellar performance were, firstly: market confidence due to the precautionary IMF Stand-By Agreement.
Secondly: a near-balanced budget, where Jamaica outperformed not only its Latin American and Caribbean peers by a very wide margin, but both developed and emerging countries generally. This has allowed a “crowding in” effect, with falling government interest rates increasing capital flows to the private sector.
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