Job losses arising from the COVID-19 fallout are worse than the previous crisis in 2008, but recovery should happen four times as fast, according to Planning Institute of Jamaica, PIOJ, Director General Dr Wayne Henry.

That’s due to the improved macroeconomy, he said, while addressing his quarterly briefing held online. For the short term, however, many Jamaicans will need to find new forms of employment within a weak economy.

“We expect GDP to recover in three to four years, and two to three years recovery for jobs, compared to the crisis in 2008,” said Henry in response to a query on the outlook of the economy.

For July to September 2020, real value added, or GDP, was estimated to have declined by 11.3 per cent year-on-year. Over nine months, January to September, the economy has shrunk by an estimated 10.7 per cent.

Within the current review quarter, the services industry contracted by 13 per cent while the goods-producing industry contracted by 3.6 per cent. All industries within the services industry, with the exception of producers of government services, declined during the review quarter. The industries registering the largest declines were hotels & restaurants, down 63.8 per cent; other services, down 34.3 per cent; and transport, storage and communication, down 17.4 per cent.

Jamaica recorded inflation of 0.8 per cent for the month of October, reflecting higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20201120/pioj-job-recovery-forecast-four-times-pace-last-crisis-economy-contracts